Calculateur de valeur espérée
Calculez la valeur espérée d'un pari à partir de la cote et de votre probabilité de gain estimée.
Valeur espérée positive
- Valeur espérée
- 1.00
- VE en % de la mise
- 10.00%
- Probabilité de seuil de rentabilité
- 45.45%
- Votre avantage
- 4.55 pp
- Mise Kelly complète
- 8.33%
Comment ça marche
Expected value (EV) is the average result of a bet if you could place it many times. It equals your win probability times the profit, minus your loss probability times the stake. A positive EV means the price is better than your estimate of the real chance.
Enter the decimal odds, your own estimate of the win probability and the stake. You get the EV, the break-even probability, your edge over it and the full Kelly stake as a fraction of your bankroll. Your probability is an estimate, so the result is only as good as that estimate.
Questions fréquentes
What is a positive EV bet?
A bet whose odds are higher than the odds implied by your probability estimate. At 2.20 you only need to win 45.5% of the time to break even.
What is the Kelly stake?
A formula that suggests what share of your bankroll to stake for the highest long-term growth. It is aggressive; many people stake a fraction of it.
Does positive EV guarantee a profit?
No. It describes the long run. Single bets are still won or lost by chance, and a wrong probability estimate turns the result upside down.
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