期望值计算器
根据赔率和你估计的获胜概率，计算一笔投注的期望值。
期望值为正
- 期望值
- 1.00
- 期望值占投注额的百分比
- 10.00%
- 盈亏平衡概率
- 45.45%
- 你的优势
- 4.55 pp
- 完整凯利投注额
- 8.33%
工作原理
Expected value (EV) is the average result of a bet if you could place it many times. It equals your win probability times the profit, minus your loss probability times the stake. A positive EV means the price is better than your estimate of the real chance.
Enter the decimal odds, your own estimate of the win probability and the stake. You get the EV, the break-even probability, your edge over it and the full Kelly stake as a fraction of your bankroll. Your probability is an estimate, so the result is only as good as that estimate.
常见问题
What is a positive EV bet?
A bet whose odds are higher than the odds implied by your probability estimate. At 2.20 you only need to win 45.5% of the time to break even.
What is the Kelly stake?
A formula that suggests what share of your bankroll to stake for the highest long-term growth. It is aggressive; many people stake a fraction of it.
Does positive EV guarantee a profit?
No. It describes the long run. Single bets are still won or lost by chance, and a wrong probability estimate turns the result upside down.
仅供参考。18岁以上。请理性投注。