Double chance bets: covering two outcomes
Escola de apostas · Publicado · 5 min de leitura
Este artigo está disponível apenas em inglês.
A double chance bet lets you back two of the three football results at once. It is one of the simplest markets to understand, and it is often presented as a "safer" choice. It is lower risk in terms of how often it wins, but that does not make it better value. Here is how it works and how to judge it.
The three double chance options
Football's standard market has three results: home win (1), draw (X) and away win (2). Double chance combines two of them:
- 1X: the home team wins or the match is drawn. You lose only if the away team wins.
- X2: the away team wins or the match is drawn. You lose only if the home team wins.
- 12: either team wins, so the draw is the only losing result.
The bet is settled on the result after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time, unless the provider says otherwise.
How the price is built
Double chance prices come from the same probabilities as the 1X2 market. In simple terms, the chance of "1 or X" is the chance of 1 plus the chance of X. Take these 1X2 prices:
- Home 2.20, draw 3.30, away 3.40
The implied probabilities are 45.5%, 30.3% and 29.4%, a total of 105.2%. For 1X, add the first two: 45.5 + 30.3 = 75.8%. The matching decimal price is 1 / 0.758 = 1.32. A bookmaker will usually quote something like 1.28 to 1.30 after adding its own margin on top.
For X2: 30.3 + 29.4 = 59.7%, or about 1.67. For 12: 45.5 + 29.4 = 74.9%, or about 1.34.
You can see how these three prices relate by reading our guide to football 1X2 odds first.
A worked example
Stake 20 on 1X at 1.30. If the home team wins or the match is drawn, you receive 26, a profit of 6. If the away team wins, you lose 20.
Now compare with a straight home win bet at 2.20 for the same stake. A home win returns 44, a profit of 24. A draw returns nothing. So a draw is a loss on the straight bet but a small win on 1X.
To break even on 1X at 1.30, you need it to land about 77% of the time (1 / 1.30). Is that reasonable? If you believe that home-or-draw is truly 80% likely, the bet carries positive expected value. If you believe it is 70%, it does not. The tool at expected value calculator lets you test your own numbers.
Why short prices need extra care
A short price pays small profits and large losses. At 1.30 each win earns 0.30 per unit staked, but one loss costs 1.00. You need to win roughly three or four times for every loss just to break even. A string of safe-looking bets can be wiped out by a single surprise, and football produces plenty of those.
This is the main trap with double chance. It wins often, so it feels comfortable, but the profit per win is small. That is why value matters more than comfort. The idea is covered in value betting.
When double chance can make sense
- You expect the favourite to avoid defeat but doubt it will win. A strong team in a tight away fixture is a good example.
- The draw looks underpriced to you relative to the market, and you want to include it.
- You are building a combined bet and want to reduce the chance of one leg failing. Use the accumulator calculator to see how the combined price changes. Remember that every extra leg multiplies the margin you pay.
When it usually does not
- When the price is so short that a single loss erases many wins.
- When the draw is genuinely unlikely. In a mismatch, the 1X price on the strong home side barely exceeds the plain win price, so you are paying for coverage you rarely need.
- When you could get a better price on draw no bet or a small handicap. Our article on Asian handicaps shows how a +0.5 line works like a double chance on the underdog.
Checking the margin
Because three outcomes are combined into two, the bookmaker's margin is baked into every double chance price. If you add the implied probabilities of 1X and the away win, you should get above 100%. For example, 1X at 1.30 implies 76.9% and the away win at 3.40 implies 29.4%, a total of 106.3%. That is higher than the original three-way market, so double chance can carry a slightly larger margin than the main market. Always compare providers.
Common mistakes
- Calling it "safe". It is only safer in frequency of winning, not in value or total risk.
- Staking more because the bet "should" win. Stake size should follow your bankroll, as explained in bankroll management.
- Combining several double chance legs and ignoring how the margin compounds.
Key takeaways
Double chance covers two of three outcomes, so it wins more often but pays less. Its price is built from 1X2 probabilities plus a margin, and whether it is good value depends on whether your estimate of the combined chance beats the implied one. Nothing about it removes risk or guarantees a profit.
Betting is for adults only (18+). Only stake money you can afford to lose, set limits before you start, and stop if it stops being fun. If gambling is causing you problems, contact a local support organisation.