Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol prediction and betting preview, 15 November 2026

Defensor Sporting take on Peñarol in the Liga AUF Uruguaya (Soccer) on 15 November 2026, with the start set for 23:00 UTC. This preview is assembled from the records we hold: recent results, earlier meetings, the league table and bookmaker odds where they exist. Every number on the page comes from those records and nothing is estimated beyond them.

Odds and implied probability

Current 1X2 odds are 4.60 for Defensor Sporting, 3.65 for a draw and 1.65 for Peñarol. The three implied probabilities total 109.7%, which means a margin of 9.7% is built into the prices. Remove it proportionally and the market is saying 19.8% Defensor Sporting, 25.0% draw and 55.2% Peñarol. On these prices Peñarol are the favourite.

Recent form

Defensor Sporting have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10, which is 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded per match. The run, newest first: W D L L L.

Peñarol have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 3, which is 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded per match. The run, newest first: D D L D W.

Defensor Sporting and Peñarol have the same win rate in this sample (1 from 5 and 1 from 5), so recent results alone do not separate them.

League position

Defensor Sporting are in position 13 of 16 in the Liga AUF Uruguaya table with 12 points from 13 played (won 3, drew 3, lost 7; goals 16:23).

Peñarol are in position 5 of 16 in the Liga AUF Uruguaya table with 22 points from 13 played (won 6, drew 5, lost 2; goals 17:9).

Peñarol are 10 points ahead of Defensor Sporting in the table.

Facts used

These trend facts cleared our bar of at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. They describe the past and do not predict the next match:

• Defensor Sporting have not lost by two or more goals in 7 of their last 7 matches
• Defensor Sporting have scored in 6 of their last 7 matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 4 of Defensor Sporting's last 5 matches
• Peñarol have not lost by two or more goals in 8 of their last 8 matches
• Under 2.5 goals in 6 of Peñarol's last 6 matches
• Peñarol are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 matches

Bet angles from the data

Each angle below is shown only because the data supports it. They are leanings drawn from past matches and prices, not forecasts, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Match result (1X2): Peñarol

Peñarol are the market favourite at 1.65, an implied 55.2% chance once the bookmaker margin is removed. No trend fact backs this yet, so the price is the only support.

Total: under 2.5 goals

The form data points to a lower total. Under 2.5 goals in 6 of Peñarol's last 6 matches.

Double chance (win or draw)

Peñarol are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 matches. A double-chance bet covers a win or a draw, and the unbeaten run above is the data behind this angle.

Frequently asked questions

How this page is built

Results, tables and odds come from our match database (ESPN and football-data.org for fixtures and scores, The Odds API for prices). Implied probabilities remove the bookmaker margin proportionally. A trend fact needs at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. Text is generated from these fields with several phrasings, and a section is dropped when its data is missing.

18+. For information only, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.