Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction and betting preview, 16 November 2026

Here is a data-driven look at Estonia against Bulgaria, scheduled for 16 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC in the UEFA Nations League (Soccer). We summarise the form of both teams, their previous meetings and the market odds, but only where real records exist. Treat it as background reading before you decide anything, not as a promise about the result.

Odds and implied probability

The bookmaker prices Estonia at 2.10, the draw at 3.10 and Bulgaria at 3.60. Turned into probabilities, those three prices add up to 107.7%, so the bookmaker margin is 7.7%. With the margin removed, the implied chances are 44.2% for Estonia, 30.0% for a draw and 25.8% for Bulgaria. On these prices Estonia are the favourite.

Recent form

Over the last 5 matches Estonia won 2, drew 3 and lost 0. They scored 3 and let in 1, averaging 0.6 for and 0.2 against. Results, newest first: W D W D D.

Over the last 5 matches Bulgaria won 1, drew 1 and lost 3. They scored 3 and let in 10, averaging 0.6 for and 2.0 against. Results, newest first: L W L D L.

Wins in this sample: 2 from 5 for Estonia against 1 from 5 for Bulgaria, so recent results favour Estonia.

League position

In the UEFA Nations League table Estonia sit in position 19 of 54: 9 points after 5 played, with 2 won, 3 drawn and 0 lost and a goal record of 3:1.

In the UEFA Nations League table Bulgaria sit in position 39 of 54: 4 points after 5 played, with 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost and a goal record of 3:10.

Estonia are 5 points ahead of Bulgaria in the table.

Head to head

Earlier meetings on record: 1. Wins for Estonia: 0, wins for Bulgaria: 0, draws: 1. Scores added up to 0 in total, or 0.0 per game. The last of them: Bulgaria 0:0 Estonia, played on 29 September 2026.

Full list of meetings

Facts used

These trend facts cleared our bar of at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. They describe the past and do not predict the next match:

• Estonia are unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 matches
• Under 2.5 goals in 5 of Estonia's last 5 matches
• Estonia have not lost by two or more goals in 5 of their last 5 matches
• Estonia kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 matches
• Over 9.5 corners in 4 of Estonia's last 5 matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 4 of Bulgaria's last 5 matches

Bet angles from the data

Each angle below is shown only because the data supports it. They are leanings drawn from past matches and prices, not forecasts, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Match result (1X2): Estonia

The odds on Estonia are 2.10, which after removing the margin implies a 44.2% chance. No trend fact backs this yet, so the price is the only support.

Total: under 2.5 goals

The recent data leans towards a tight game. Under 2.5 goals in 5 of Estonia's last 5 matches. Earlier meetings averaged 0.0 in total, against a line of 2.5.

Double chance (win or draw)

Estonia are unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 matches. A double-chance bet covers a win or a draw, and the unbeaten run above is the data behind this angle.

Frequently asked questions

How this page is built

Results, tables and odds come from our match database (ESPN and football-data.org for fixtures and scores, The Odds API for prices). Implied probabilities remove the bookmaker margin proportionally. A trend fact needs at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. Text is generated from these fields with several phrasings, and a section is dropped when its data is missing.

18+. For information only, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.