Poland vs Sweden prediction and betting preview, 17 November 2026

Poland take on Sweden in the UEFA Nations League (Soccer) on 17 November 2026, with the start set for 19:45 UTC. This preview is assembled from the records we hold: recent results, earlier meetings, the league table and bookmaker odds where they exist. Every number on the page comes from those records and nothing is estimated beyond them.

Odds and implied probability

Current 1X2 odds are 2.20 for Poland, 3.55 for a draw and 2.90 for Sweden. The three implied probabilities total 108.1%, which means a margin of 8.1% is built into the prices. Remove it proportionally and the market is saying 42.0% Poland, 26.1% draw and 31.9% Sweden. On these prices Poland are the favourite.

Recent form

Poland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 6, which is 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The run, newest first: L L W L D.

Sweden have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 5, which is 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per match. The run, newest first: W W D W W.

Recent results lean towards Sweden, who won 4 of 5, while Poland won 1 of 5.

League position

Poland are in position 35 of 54 in the UEFA Nations League table with 4 points from 5 played (won 1, drew 1, lost 3; goals 8:6).

Sweden are in position 3 of 54 in the UEFA Nations League table with 13 points from 5 played (won 4, drew 1, lost 0; goals 10:5).

Sweden are 9 points ahead of Poland in the table.

Head to head

Meetings between the two sides in our data: 1. Wins for Poland: 0, wins for Sweden: 1. The combined score total across those games is 4, an average of 4.0 per meeting. The most recent one finished Sweden 3:1 Poland on 28 September 2026.

Full list of meetings

Facts used

These trend facts cleared our bar of at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. They describe the past and do not predict the next match:

• Poland have not lost by two or more goals in 4 of their last 5 matches
• Sweden are unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 matches
• Sweden have scored in 5 of their last 5 matches
• Sweden have not lost by two or more goals in 5 of their last 5 matches
• Sweden have won 4 of their last 5 matches
• Both teams scored in 4 of Sweden's last 5 matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 4 of Sweden's last 5 matches

Bet angles from the data

Each angle below is shown only because the data supports it. They are leanings drawn from past matches and prices, not forecasts, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Match result (1X2): Poland

Poland are the market favourite at 2.20, an implied 42.0% chance once the bookmaker margin is removed. No trend fact backs this yet, so the price is the only support.

Both teams to score

The data leans towards goals at both ends. Both teams scored in 4 of Sweden's last 5 matches.

Double chance (win or draw)

Sweden are unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 matches. A double-chance bet covers a win or a draw, and the unbeaten run above is the data behind this angle.

Frequently asked questions

How this page is built

Results, tables and odds come from our match database (ESPN and football-data.org for fixtures and scores, The Odds API for prices). Implied probabilities remove the bookmaker margin proportionally. A trend fact needs at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. Text is generated from these fields with several phrasings, and a section is dropped when its data is missing.

18+. For information only, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.