Pachuca vs Toluca prediction and betting preview, 21 November 2026

Pachuca take on Toluca in the Mexican Liga BBVA MX (Soccer) on 21 November 2026, with the start set for 22:50 UTC. This preview is assembled from the records we hold: recent results, earlier meetings, the league table and bookmaker odds where they exist. Every number on the page comes from those records and nothing is estimated beyond them.

Odds and implied probability

Current 1X2 odds are 2.80 for Pachuca, 3.90 for a draw and 2.15 for Toluca. The three implied probabilities total 107.9%, which means a margin of 7.9% is built into the prices. Remove it proportionally and the market is saying 33.1% Pachuca, 23.8% draw and 43.1% Toluca. Toluca are the shorter price, so the bookmaker rates them the favourite.

Recent form

Pachuca have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 in their last 5 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 6, which is 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The run, newest first: W W W L L.

Toluca have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 6, which is 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The run, newest first: W D D D D.

Recent results lean towards Pachuca, who won 3 of 5, while Toluca won 1 of 5.

League position

Pachuca are in position 9 of 18 in the Mexican Liga BBVA MX table with 22 points from 16 played (won 6, drew 4, lost 6; goals 29:20).

Toluca are in position 4 of 18 in the Mexican Liga BBVA MX table with 27 points from 16 played (won 7, drew 6, lost 3; goals 35:21).

Toluca are 5 points ahead of Pachuca in the table.

Facts used

These trend facts cleared our bar of at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. They describe the past and do not predict the next match:

• Pachuca have not lost by two or more goals in 8 of their last 8 matches
• Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Pachuca's last 6 matches
• Pachuca have scored in 6 of their last 6 matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 6 of Pachuca's last 6 matches
• Both teams scored in 5 of Pachuca's last 6 matches
• Toluca have scored in 9 of their last 9 matches
• Toluca have not lost by two or more goals in 9 of their last 9 matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of Toluca's last 8 matches
• Toluca are unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 matches
• Both teams scored in 7 of Toluca's last 8 matches
• Over 9.5 corners in 5 of Toluca's last 6 matches

Bet angles from the data

Each angle below is shown only because the data supports it. They are leanings drawn from past matches and prices, not forecasts, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Match result (1X2): Toluca

Toluca are the market favourite at 2.15, an implied 43.1% chance once the bookmaker margin is removed. No trend fact backs this yet, so the price is the only support.

Total: over 2.5 goals

The form data points to a higher total. Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Pachuca's last 6 matches.

Both teams to score

The data leans towards goals at both ends. Both teams scored in 5 of Pachuca's last 6 matches. Both teams scored in 7 of Toluca's last 8 matches.

Double chance (win or draw)

Toluca are unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 matches. A double-chance bet covers a win or a draw, and the unbeaten run above is the data behind this angle.

Frequently asked questions

How this page is built

Results, tables and odds come from our match database (ESPN and football-data.org for fixtures and scores, The Odds API for prices). Implied probabilities remove the bookmaker margin proportionally. A trend fact needs at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. Text is generated from these fields with several phrasings, and a section is dropped when its data is missing.

18+. For information only, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.