Southampton vs Derby County prediction and betting preview, 21 November 2026

Southampton take on Derby County in the English League Championship (Soccer) on 21 November 2026, with the start set for 12:30 UTC. This preview is assembled from the records we hold: recent results, earlier meetings, the league table and bookmaker odds where they exist. Every number on the page comes from those records and nothing is estimated beyond them.

Odds and implied probability

Current 1X2 odds are 1.39 for Southampton, 5.00 for a draw and 7.00 for Derby County. The three implied probabilities total 106.2%, which means a margin of 6.2% is built into the prices. Remove it proportionally and the market is saying 67.7% Southampton, 18.8% draw and 13.4% Derby County. Southampton are the shorter price, so the bookmaker rates them the favourite.

Recent form

Southampton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5, which is 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded per match. The run, newest first: L D W W D.

Derby County have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 11, which is 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded per match. The run, newest first: W L L D L.

Recent results lean towards Southampton, who won 2 of 5, while Derby County won 1 of 5.

League position

Southampton are in position 7 of 24 in the English League Championship table with 24 points from 15 played (won 8, drew 4, lost 3; goals 29:15).

Derby County are in position 23 of 24 in the English League Championship table with 10 points from 15 played (won 2, drew 4, lost 9; goals 14:30).

Southampton are 14 points ahead of Derby County in the table.

Facts used

These trend facts cleared our bar of at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. They describe the past and do not predict the next match:

• Southampton have not lost by two or more goals in 8 of their last 8 matches
• Southampton are unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 matches
• Southampton have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 7 of Derby County's last 8 matches

Bet angles from the data

Each angle below is shown only because the data supports it. They are leanings drawn from past matches and prices, not forecasts, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Match result (1X2): Southampton

Southampton are the market favourite at 1.39, an implied 67.7% chance once the bookmaker margin is removed. No trend fact backs this yet, so the price is the only support.

Double chance (win or draw)

Southampton are unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 matches. A double-chance bet covers a win or a draw, and the unbeaten run above is the data behind this angle.

Frequently asked questions

How this page is built

Results, tables and odds come from our match database (ESPN and football-data.org for fixtures and scores, The Odds API for prices). Implied probabilities remove the bookmaker margin proportionally. A trend fact needs at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. Text is generated from these fields with several phrasings, and a section is dropped when its data is missing.

18+. For information only, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.