Monza vs Fiorentina prediction and betting preview, 23 November 2026

Here is a data-driven look at Monza against Fiorentina, scheduled for 23 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC in the Italian Serie A (Soccer). We summarise the form of both teams, their previous meetings and the market odds, but only where real records exist. Treat it as background reading before you decide anything, not as a promise about the result.

Odds and implied probability

The bookmaker prices Monza at 3.25, the draw at 3.55 and Fiorentina at 1.91. Turned into probabilities, those three prices add up to 111.3%, so the bookmaker margin is 11.3%. With the margin removed, the implied chances are 27.6% for Monza, 25.3% for a draw and 47.0% for Fiorentina. Fiorentina are the shorter price, so the bookmaker rates them the favourite.

Recent form

Over the last 5 matches Monza won 1, drew 0 and lost 4. They scored 8 and let in 10, averaging 1.6 for and 2.0 against. Results, newest first: L L L L W.

Over the last 5 matches Fiorentina won 1, drew 2 and lost 2. They scored 10 and let in 11, averaging 2.0 for and 2.2 against. Results, newest first: D W D L L.

Monza and Fiorentina have the same win rate in this sample (1 from 5 and 1 from 5), so recent results alone do not separate them.

League position

In the Italian Serie A table Monza sit in position 18 of 20: 7 points after 11 played, with 2 won, 1 drawn and 8 lost and a goal record of 17:25.

In the Italian Serie A table Fiorentina sit in position 15 of 20: 9 points after 11 played, with 2 won, 3 drawn and 6 lost and a goal record of 17:25.

Fiorentina are 2 points ahead of Monza in the table.

Facts used

These trend facts cleared our bar of at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. They describe the past and do not predict the next match:

• Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Monza's last 7 matches
• Monza have scored in 6 of their last 7 matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 6 of Monza's last 7 matches
• Monza have lost 5 of their last 6 matches
• Monza have not lost by two or more goals in 4 of their last 5 matches
• Both teams scored in 7 of Fiorentina's last 7 matches
• Fiorentina have scored in 7 of their last 7 matches
• Over 1.5 goals in 7 of Fiorentina's last 7 matches
• Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Fiorentina's last 6 matches
• Fiorentina have not lost by two or more goals in 6 of their last 7 matches
• Over 3.5 goals in 4 of Fiorentina's last 5 matches

Bet angles from the data

Each angle below is shown only because the data supports it. They are leanings drawn from past matches and prices, not forecasts, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Match result (1X2): Fiorentina

The odds on Fiorentina are 1.91, which after removing the margin implies a 47.0% chance. Supporting facts: Monza have lost 5 of their last 6 matches.

Total: over 2.5 goals

The recent data leans towards a game with goals. Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Monza's last 7 matches. Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Fiorentina's last 6 matches.

Both teams to score

The form data shows a habit of scoring in recent matches. Both teams scored in 7 of Fiorentina's last 7 matches.

Frequently asked questions

How this page is built

Results, tables and odds come from our match database (ESPN and football-data.org for fixtures and scores, The Odds API for prices). Implied probabilities remove the bookmaker margin proportionally. A trend fact needs at least 5 matches and an 80% hit rate. Text is generated from these fields with several phrasings, and a section is dropped when its data is missing.

18+. For information only, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.